Xyoo 2024, nyob rau hauv ob qho kev cuam tshuam ntawm lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam qauv thiab kev coj noj coj ua hauv tsev, Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam txhuas tau qhia txog kev ua haujlwm nyuaj thiab hloov tau. Ntawm tag nrho, kev lag luam loj txuas ntxiv nthuav dav, thiab kev tsim khoom thiab kev siv txhuas tau khaws cia kev loj hlob, tab sis qhov kev loj hlob tau hloov pauv. Ntawm qhov tod tes, tau tsav los ntawm qhov kev thov muaj zog rau lub zog tshiab tsheb, photovoltaic, hluav taws xob fais fab thiab lwm yam kev lag luam, daim ntawv thov ntau yam ntawm txhuas txuas ntxiv nthuav dav, txhaj tshuaj tshiab rau hauv kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam; Ntawm qhov tod tes, kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev tau ua rau qee qhov kev xav tau ntawm txhuas hauv kev tsim kho. Kev lag luam txhuas qhov kev hloov pauv mus rau kev hloov pauv hauv kev lag luam, cov tswv yim teb rau qhov txawv txav ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom, thiab cov tswv yim los tsim cov kev xav tau nyuaj rau kev tsim ntsuab thiab cov pa roj carbon tsawg tseem tab tom tshawb nrhiav thiab maj mam ntxiv dag zog. Qhov tshwm sim ntawm cov khoom tsim tau zoo tshiab ntawm kev lag luam tseem tsis tau ua raws li qhov yuav tsum tau ua ntawm kev txhim kho kev lag luam, thiab kev lag luam txhuas tau ntsib ntau yam teeb meem.
1.aluminium kev lag luam saw kev lag luam tsom xam
Alumina
Nyob rau lub Rau Hli 2024, cov khoom tso tawm yog 7.193 lab tons, nce 1.4% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab lub hli nce ntxiv yog txwv. Nyob rau hauv cov nram qab no qhov chaw ntawm resumption ntawm ntau lawm muaj peev xwm tso tawm, cov tshiab zus tau tej cov nyob rau hauv Inner Mongolia yuav maj mam tso tawm, thiab cov kev khiav hauj lwm muaj peev xwm tau tuav ib tug zuj zus qauv.
Nyob rau hauv 2024, tus nqi ntawm alumina fluctuates sharply, qhia pom tseeb phased yam ntxwv. Nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, tus nqi raws li ib tug tag nrho qhia ib tug upward trend, ntawm uas los ntawm Lub ib hlis ntuj mus rau lub Tsib Hlis, qhov chaw tus nqi ntawm alumina tau nce los ntawm kwv yees li 3,000 yuan / tuj thaum pib ntawm lub xyoo mus rau ntau tshaj 4,000 yuan / tuj, nce ntau tshaj 30%. Lub ntsiab yog vim li cas rau tus nqi nce nyob rau theem no yog cov khoom nruj ntawm cov bauxite hauv tsev, ua rau cov nqi ntau dua alumina.
Qhov nce siab hauv cov nqi alumina tau ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov rau tus nqi qis ntawm cov lag luam electrolytic aluminium. Yuav kom tsim tau 1 tuj ntawm electrolytic txhuas yuav tsum tau noj 1.925 tons ntawm alumina xam, alumina nqi nce 1000 yuan / ton, electrolytic txhuas cov nqi yuav nce li ntawm 1925 yuan / ton. Hauv kev teb rau tus nqi siab, qee lub tuam txhab hluav taws xob electrolytic aluminium pib txo cov khoom lag luam lossis qeeb qeeb ntawm kev rov ua haujlwm ntawm cov phiaj xwm tsim khoom, xws li xeev Henan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Liaoning, Chongqing thiab lwm thaj chaw tus nqi siab ntawm qee lub lag luam hauv Suav teb tau tshaj tawm kev kho dua tshiab, lub tank nres lossis qeeb rov pib dua ntawm kev tsim khoom.
Electrolytic aluminium
Nyob rau hauv 2022, lub peev xwm ntau lawm yog hais txog 43 lab tons, uas tau mus txog lub qab nthab liab kab. Raws li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2024, lub peev xwm ua haujlwm ntawm Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam electrolytic aluminium yog 43,584,000 tons, nce ntawm 1.506 lab tons, lossis 3.58%, piv nrog 42,078,000 tons thaum kawg ntawm 2023. Tam sim no, tag nrho cov peev txheej ntawm domestic electrolytic aluminium tau nce mus txog 4 lab tons. Kev ua raws li txoj cai no yog qhov tseem ceeb heev rau kev txhim kho mus ntev ntawm kev lag luam electrolytic aluminium. Nws pab tswj overcapacity nyob rau hauv kev lag luam, zam kev sib tw vicious, thiab txhawb txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam nyob rau hauv ib tug high-zoo, ntsuab thiab sustainable kev coj. Los ntawm kev tshem tawm cov peev txheej rov qab thiab txhim kho kev siv hluav taws xob, cov lag luam raug txhawb kom nce kev tsim kho thev naus laus zis thiab kev nqis peev hauv kev txuag hluav taws xob thiab emission txo, thiab txhim kho tag nrho cov kev sib tw ntawm kev lag luam.
Aluminium ua
Nrog rau kev txhim kho cov kev xav tau ntawm lub teeb yuag hauv ntau qhov kev lag luam, qhov kev thov rau cov khoom lag luam aluminium txuas ntxiv nce ntxiv, thiab cov khoom lag luam tau tsim nyob rau hauv cov kev taw qhia ntawm high-end, ntse thiab kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig. Hauv kev tsim kho, txawm hais tias tag nrho cov kev lag luam poob qis hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev, aluminium qhov rooj thiab qhov rais, kab hlau rhuav phab ntsa thiab lwm yam khoom tseem muaj kev xav tau ruaj khov hauv cov tsev lag luam tshiab, cov tsev nyob hauv high-end thiab lub tsev qub renovation project. Raws li kev txheeb cais, tus nqi ntawm txhuas siv hauv kev tsim kho kev lag luam suav txog li 28% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom siv txhuas. Nyob rau hauv lub tshav pob ntawm kev thauj mus los, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog kev loj hlob sai ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb, qhov kev thov rau txhuas ua cov ntaub ntawv tau qhia ib tug muaj zog kev loj hlob momentum. Nrog rau kev nrawm ntawm lub tsheb sib tsoo txheej txheem, aluminium alloy yog ntau thiab ntau dua dav siv nyob rau hauv lub cev qauv, log hub, roj teeb tais thiab lwm yam khoom. Siv lub zog tshiab lub tsheb ua piv txwv, tus nqi ntawm txhuas siv nyob rau hauv nws lub cev ntau tshaj 400 kg / tsheb, uas yog ho nce piv nrog ib txwm roj tsheb. Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov kev thov rau aluminium conductors, aluminium radiators thiab lwm yam khoom siv hauv kev lag luam hluav taws xob kuj tau nce tsis tu ncua nrog kev tsim kho thiab kho dua tshiab ntawm daim phiaj hluav taws xob.
Recycled aluminium
Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, kev tsim khoom tau nce ntxiv, 2024 yog lub xyoo tseem ceeb rau Tuam Tshoj cov khoom siv txhuas rov ua dua tshiab, thiab cov khoom siv txhuas txhua xyoo tau tawg los ntawm 10 lab tons cim, ncav cuag li 10.55 lab tons, thiab qhov piv ntawm cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab rau thawj txhuas tau ze li ntawm 1: 4. Txawm li cas los xij, kev rov ua dua tshiab ntawm cov khib nyiab aluminium, lub hauv paus ntawm kev txhim kho ntawm cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab, tsis zoo.
Txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam txhuas rov ua dua tshiab yog nyob ntawm kev muab cov ntaub ntawv pov tseg aluminium raw khoom, thiab cov khoom siv ntawm cov khoom siv txhuas rov ua dua tshiab hauv Suav teb tau ntsib qhov xwm txheej hnyav. Cov khoom siv hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob hauv tsev tsis zoo tag nrho, txawm hais tias Tuam Tshoj tus qub txhuas cov khib nyiab rov qab nyob rau hauv qee thaj chaw hauv ntiaj teb cov thawj coj, xws li cov kaus poom ntawm txhuas cov khib nyiab rov ua dua tuaj yeem ncav cuag 100%, kev tsim kho aluminium khib nyiab tuaj yeem ncav cuag 90%, tsheb thauj mus los yog 87%, tab sis tag nrho cov nqi rov qab tseem yuav tsum tau txhim kho, feem ntau vim tias cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tsis zoo, thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tsis zoo. tsis tau siv tau zoo.
Kev hloov kho ntawm txoj cai ntshuam kuj tseem muaj kev cuam tshuam loj rau kev muab cov khoom siv txhuas rov ua dua tshiab. Nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los no, Tuam Tshoj tau siv cov kev tswj xyuas nruj dua ntawm kev ntshuam ntawm cov khoom siv txhuas los ntxiv dag zog rau kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig thiab kev tswj hwm kev lag luam. Qhov no ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv loj hauv kev xa khoom ntawm cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab cam khwb cia aluminium alloy raw cov ntaub ntawv, thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2024, Tuam Tshoj cov khoom seem aluminium ntshuam ntawm 133,000 tons, nce ntawm 0.81%, nqis 13.59% xyoo-rau-xyoo, kev poob qis ntawm kev xa khoom cuam tshuam txog kev tsis ruaj khov ntawm cov khoom siv.
2.Aluminium kev lag luam saw kev lag luam outlook
Aluminium oxide
Xyoo 2025, yuav muaj peev xwm tsim tau ntau dua, nrog rau qhov nce ntawm ze li ntawm 13%, ua ke nrog qhov muaj peev xwm ntawm cov mines tuaj yeem hloov pauv Tuam Tshoj cov mines hauv tsev, thiab kev hloov pauv ntawm aluminium export se rebate txoj cai yuav txwv qhov kev thov nce ntxiv, thiab tus nqi yuav poob nrog qhov tshwm sim siab. Cov khoom lag luam nce ntxiv: Tuam Tshoj tus tshiab alumina muaj peev xwm nyob rau xyoo 2025 Tej zaum yuav ncav cuag 13.2 lab tons, thiab cov peev txheej tsim tawm txawv teb chaws xav tias yuav nce 5.1 lab tons hauv 2025. Nqe poob: cov khoom siv ntawm bauxite thiab alumina nce, qhov tsis sib xws ntawm cov khoom siv thiab kev thov tau txo qis, thiab tus nqi maj mam poob.
Electrolytic aluminium
Lub peev xwm ntau lawm ntawm cov khoom siv tau mus txog lub qab nthab, qhov tshwm sim ntawm kev tsim ntau lawm yog qhov tsawg kawg nkaus, kev tsim tawm txawv teb chaws cuam tshuam los ntawm ntau yam, thiab kev tsim khoom tsis tuaj yeem ua tau zoo. Ntawm qhov kev thov sab nraud, ntxiv rau qhov kev poob qis hauv xyoo tas los ntawm kev thov vaj tsev, lwm qhov kev thov dav dav tau pom qhov ua tau zoo, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau hauv kev lag luam tshiab ntawm lub zog xav tau kev loj hlob muaj peev xwm, thiab cov khoom siv thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev thov tau tswj hwm qhov sib npaug; Lub peev xwm tsim khoom hauv tsev nyob ze rau ntawm txoj kab liab, tag nrho ntawm 450,000 tons ntawm cov peev txheej tshiab hauv tebchaws tuaj yeem nqis peev hauv 2025, thiab txawv teb chaws xav tias yuav ntxiv 820,000 tons ntawm cov peev txheej tshiab nyob rau hauv qhov ntsuas qhov ntsuas, qhov nce ntawm 2.3% piv nrog 2024. Kev thov kev loj hlob ntawm cov kev xav tau kev loj hlob, qhov kev xav tau tshiab tau hloov pauv, cov qauv kev xav tau tsis muaj zog. dominated los ntawm photovoltaic thiab tshiab zog tsheb yuav tsum tsawg tshaj li 260,000 tons ntawm domestic electrolytic aluminium mov nyob rau hauv 2025. Nqe nce: Shanghai txhuas nqi yuav tsum fluctuate ntawm 19000-20500 yuan / ton nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, thiab stabilize nyob rau hauv lub thib ob ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog 20, thiab cov nqi yuav tsum yog 20-20, thiab cov nqi yuav tsum yog 10-2000, yuan/ton.
Aluminium ua
Nrog rau txoj kev loj hlob sai ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb, kev lag luam photovoltaic thiab nrov ntawm 5G thev naus laus zis, qhov kev thov rau cov khoom siv txhuas ua tiav yuav nce ntxiv thiab xav kom muaj kev loj hlob ruaj khov. Kev lag luam loj nthuav dav: Kev lag luam loj yuav tsum ncav cuag 1 trillion yuan, thiab qhov kev thov rau lub zog tshiab tsheb, photovoltaic, 3C thiab lub tsev ntse muaj zog. Cov khoom hloov kho: Cov khoom yog txav mus rau kev ua haujlwm siab, hnav thiab ua haujlwm ntau, thiab kev tshawb fawb thiab kev tsim cov khoom siv high-end thiab tshwj xeeb muaj nuj nqi aluminium alloy. Kev kawm txuj ci: ntse, automation rau hauv lub ntsiab, cov khoom siv peev hauv kev lag luam, tswj kev tsim khoom, txhim kho kev ua tau zoo thiab ua tau zoo, kev lag luam-tsev kawm ntawv-kev tshawb fawb kev koom tes los txhawb kev txhim kho thev naus laus zis.
Recycled aluminium
Nkag mus rau lub sijhawm loj hlob, cov khoom seem / cov tsheb tsis sib xws nkag mus rau lub sijhawm kom muaj nuj nqis, uas tuaj yeem ua tiav qhov tshwm sim ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev tsis txaus, thiab kev lag luam muaj kev cia siab dav, tab sis tam sim no tab tom ntsib teeb meem xws li tsis txaus ntawm cov khoom seem, kev lag luam muaj zog tos-thiab-pom cov khoom muag, thiab cov khoom muag tsis txaus. Kev loj hlob ntau lawm: Raws li lub Recycled Hlau ceg ntawm Tuam Tshoj Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association, nws yuav ncav cuag 11.35 lab tons hauv 2025. Daim ntawv thov kev nthuav dav: Nyob rau hauv lub teb ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb, kev tsim kho, hluav taws xob thiab lwm yam kev siv yuav txuas ntxiv, xws li lub zog tshiab tsheb hauv kev nrhiav kev txhim kho mileage, ntau cov khoom siv rov ua dua tshiab aluminium alloy. Ua kom muaj kev lag luam ntau ntxiv: Raws li ob txoj kev nthuav dav ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom loj thiab cov qauv kev lag luam, qee lub lag luam me yuav raug tshem tawm los ntawm kev ua lag luam, thiab cov lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig yuav muaj peev xwm ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo, txo cov nqi, thiab ntxiv dag zog rau kev lag luam kev sib tw.
3.Txoj kev tsom xam
Alumina: Lub tuam txhab tsim khoom tuaj yeem nce cov khoom muag kom tsim nyog thaum tus nqi siab, tos kom tus nqi poob thiab maj mam xa nkoj; Cov tub lag luam yuav xav txog kev ua haujlwm luv ua ntej tus nqi poob rau kev tiv thaiv los ntawm kev ua lag luam yav tom ntej thiab kaw cov txiaj ntsig.
Electrolytic aluminium: Cov tuam txhab tsim khoom tuaj yeem them nyiaj rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev thov hauv thaj chaw tshiab xws li lub zog tshiab, kho cov qauv khoom, thiab ua kom cov khoom muaj feem xyuam; Cov neeg lag luam tuaj yeem yuav cov ntawv cog lus yav tom ntej thaum tus nqi qis thiab muag lawv thaum tus nqi siab raws li qhov xwm txheej macroeconomic thiab kev lag luam thiab kev xav tau hloov pauv.
Aluminium ua: cov tuam txhab lag luam yuav tsum ntxiv dag zog thev naus laus zis tshiab thiab cov khoom lag luam tshawb fawb thiab txhim kho, txhim kho cov khoom lag luam ntxiv tus nqi thiab kev sib tw ua lag luam; nquag nthuav tawm cov lag luam tawm tshiab, xws li lub zog tshiab tsheb, aerospace, cov ntaub ntawv hluav taws xob thiab lwm qhov chaw; Ntxiv dag zog rau kev koom tes nrog cov khoom lag luam sab saud thiab hauv qab los tsim kom muaj cov saw hlau ruaj khov.
Post lub sij hawm: Feb-03-2025
